Statistical Arbitrage in Cryptocurrencies
Momentum, order-flow and funding-rate strategies on six years of Binance data, combined into one walk-forward portfolio. On a year of data it never saw during research, it returned a 1.46 Sharpe ratio with almost no exposure to Bitcoin. Then I tried to break it, and a revised version is now running a live forward test.
Sharpe ratio on the held-out year
Beta to Bitcoin: returns that don't just ride the market
Funding-rate strategy Sharpe, development / validation
Strategy variations tested, all logged to correct for overfitting
Sharpe ratio after each realism check
Survivorship bias. My original coin list only had coins that still exist today. Adding back the ones that died erased most of the returns, which is exactly what the test was for.
